I have a pretty limited knowledge in History but I want to know the future (or outcome) of the Tunisian revolution based on the development of current events and also on some data that I know/can provide. I'm not sure if the natural evolution of nations is toward progress or not; and that's exactly what I'm asking: Where are we going?
First, I'll put some information about the revolution and political state to put you in perspective
The roots of the revolution
The revolution was led mainly by jobless/hopeless and kind of lifeless youth. They have little (or nothing) left behind them to care about; so they simply went to the streets to protest. The protests weren't armed but they were violent at first.
1 year after the revolution
Joblessness jumped to 18.6% (and increasing), GDP dropped 1.8%. A citizens elected constitution started working, a constitution formed government has been in place for 100 days.
Then, I'll draw some conclusion as someone who was born and lived for more than 20 years in this country. Feel free to ask for any other information you need
- Education 14 years ago, I started school (at age of 6). I remember that the system was pretty solid. I learned languages (French and Arabic), Maths, and some science. The teachers were quite old (50 years or older) but they had a great experience and also they loved their job. Moving from primary school, things started to change. The system was messy and also unfair. High-School was terrible and there were only a few old and good professors. I should call myself lucky that I had a great and free education. The system currently is pretty messy and unless parents have money to finance their children education, they are very unlikely to learn a thing. It's getting worse everyday.
- Higher Education Higher education is unbearable. I joined medical studies two years ago and I dropped this year. There isn't even the required equipments for teaching. Some professors don't even prepare their classes/courses. They steal it from French Universities (and sometimes it's plagiarism) and edit it a bit (and make many syntax mistakes on the way). I followed Medical studies because it's (the irony) one of the best higher education institutions in the country.
- The jobless Most of them are youth. They hold high-degrees from even worse universities. They don't have any formal/informal training. Few of them pursued other manual tracks (like becoming a carpenter) but most of them are protesting on the streets. Some of them are violent (block roads, prohibit governments institution from operating) and many of them rely on their parents for food, shelter and coffee.
- The government
I have had many opportunities to visit some government entities (for paperwork, registrations and other things). It's a slow, painful, pretty corrupt institution. However, there is something that attracted me the most: It's very unproductive. We can get more productivity with something like 20% of the employees or even less. The government employs around half a million. The government wages are pretty low, but it's so far the best paying entity on the country. Here are some salaries (usd/month)
- Engineer: $733
- General Practitioner: $750
- Professor: $1,300 (varies a bit)
- Technical assistant: $300
Well, I'll keep it short. There is an ongoing mess right now, and everywhere. Garbage is everywhere in the city, many roads are being ruined and not maintained any more, government services (health, transportation) are even worse, Internet is barely usable (have a 7mbs and get only 1mbs or less), Inflation is dreadful (food prices doubled comparing to pre-revolution). Worse, some government entities (like the local pharmacy for medicines) are being robbed and destroyed by "unknown" and their resources are taken across border (to Libya or Algeria).
So that shouldn't be surprising for a Post-Revolution country. But the question is: With an uneducated/inexperienced youth, a corrupt government, a terrible infrastructure; what's the natural evolution/progress in this situation (based on history/other countries) and what's the very likely outcome?
I don't want to overload the question with information, but if you need any other data/details to build explanations I'll be happy to add to it.