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Japan and the Soviet Union shared a common border in Manchuria and the German invasion of the Soviet Union weakened the Soviets greatly. In view of the advantages to Japan in seeing the Soviet Union defeated (not to mention the resources available in Siberia) and the fact that Japan had large Kwantung Army stationed there essentially doing nothing, why didn't Japan attack?

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Hawaii was slightly more attractive than Siberia. – JoeHobbit Oct 14 '11 at 7:14

8 Answers

up vote 33 down vote accepted

We have to delve into two spheres to address this question, the political and the military.

Militarily, the Japanese fought a series of border skirmishes with the Soviet Union at Khalkhin Gol (located along the Manchurian - Mongolian border, Mongolia then being a "People's Republic" and puppet of the Soviet Union) through early summer to early autumn 1939, with the main battle happening on August 20-31. Georgy Zhukov (who later went on to lead large formations in Europe, but then a Corps Commander) launched a coordinated combined arms attack which stunned the patently inferior Japanese, leading to a prompt cease-fire and cessation of hostilities on September 15, 1939.

Politically, the Japanese military cadres were always divided along two opposed doctrines: the Northern Expansion Doctrine (in which the Japanese Empire would expand north into Siberia) and the Southern Expansion Doctrine (in which the Japanese Empire would instead focus on South-East Asia and the greater Pacific) favoured by the Army and Navy respectively. The thorough paddling that the Imperial Japanese Army and the Kwantung Army received at Khalkhin Gol discredited the Northern Expansion Doctrine.

There are indications that the Japanese would have struck the Soviet Union had Operation Typoon succeeded and Moscow taken by the Germans, but this obviously never materialized. What a difference 50km can make!

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Excellent answer, only one addition to make: while Siberia was underdeveloped and underpopulated, most of the places along the Southern expansion route were already sufficiently developed to be readily exploited, and certainly sufficiently populated to make up a market for certain types of goods. This fact should be explored, but it proved to be more time consuming than I can afford. Perhaps somebody more into Japan(ese)? – astabada Dec 22 '12 at 17:36

Japan was interested in extending its influence in Asia and for that it had to confront either USSR or USA. While I don't think that the exact reason for choosing USA is known, Japan was at a clear disadvantage when battling USSR: while the Soviet Union had established overland supply line for its troops in the far east (Trans-Siberian Railway) the Japanese had to supply their troops and transport reinforcements by sea. This already proved fatal for Japan in the Russo-Japanese War and only the civil unrest in Russia that eventually led to the 1905 Russian Revolutiоn saved Japan from a defeat. The history repeated itself in the Battles of Khalkhin Gol in 1939 and I guess that the Japanese learned their lesson.

The United States on the other hand could only defend their interests in Asia and Pacific by sea, same as Japan itself. So the chances here were equal and the attack on Pearl Harbor temporarily gave Japan a significant advantage - something that they couldn't achieve against Soviet Union.

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They had a treaty beginning in 1941, after a few skirmishes along the area in question. They were also a member of the Tripartite Pact, which they remainded a member of even after Germany attacked the Soviet Union

references: Wikipedia

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The Soviets kept a strong army in the Far East at all times, in case of Japanese attack, and the Japanese had come out a distinct second best in earlier battles. Opening up a front meant committing the Kwantung Army to battle, with all the logistics (never Japan's strong point) that implies, and a battle that the Japanese could not necessarily pull back from.

Further, there weren't all that many resources being exploited in Siberia, and Siberia's a very big place. After what was available near Manchuria, it was a very long trip to the Irkutsk area, the next place worth conquering.

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I think they would rather go for Kolyma River and these gold mines, if anything. But as you say a big place with not so many resources close to Japan. Anyone can check on the map where were Norilsk nickel mines, or where was Chelyabinsk with all the tank factories. Long long way from home. – kubanczyk Oct 1 '12 at 20:40

One important reason that Japan chose to go to war with the United States rather than the Soviet Union was because its navy was the stronger of its two arms.

The Japanese navy was quite competitive with the U.S. navy, even before Pearl Harbor (until the 1943 U.S. shipbuilding program kicked in). Not so the Japanese army, which had been defeated by Soviet forces on the Mongolian border in 1938, and lacked tanks and other heavy equipment.

Furthermore, Japan didn't have the logistics to fight a "two front" war, one on land and one at sea.

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They did attack the USSR a few times, but lost badly and decided to sign a treaty with the USSR. They quit with Russia because they wanted to expand farther into the Pacific to which Russia wasn't a threat to that goal. That's perhaps the biggest reason for the Raid on Pearl Harbor, Japan was worried that America would intervene and cause issues to the plan. They decided to launch a first strike to neutralize the possibility, by destroying the American fleet and holding us off for awhile. This however didn't happen because the main targets being our aircraft carriers were out to sea at the time of the attack.

The Invasion of Pearl Harbor ,History Channel

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As was stated in another answer, there were a number of skirmishes/battles that occurred in 1939, such as the Battles of Khalkin Gol, but it essentially concluded when it became apparent that Japan was not a military match against the Russians. This basically guaranteed that Germany and Japan would never link up as allies on land.

For more information about the battle, I'm going to forward you to the wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Khalkhin_Gol

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I don't know, if they could go after one of the strongest navies in the world at the time, they could have probably fended off the Russians...if they had dedicated the manpower to it. the logistics would have been easier at least. An interesting what-if question for sure. – canadiancreed Oct 11 '11 at 20:44
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@canadiancreed: Actually, Japan's (and the Axis') best chance to win World War II was for Japan to launch an amphibious invasion of India, followed by a link up with Germany in the Middle East, not Russia. seekingalpha.com/instablog/399221-graham-and-dodd-investor/… – Tom Au Feb 17 '12 at 1:12

US oil sanctions were crippling Japan and they came after the US to try and force FDR into negotiations and cripple our Navy that he had moved from San Diego to Honolulu, the only force capable of stopping the Japanese from taking the oil fields in the Indies. In other words they were desperate for oil and had to remove the threat of the US Navy before they could think about war with Russia.

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I think your answer covers a really interesting aspect of the problem. However I strongly suggest to add references. Upvoted answers always have references. And welcome to history@se! – astabada Jan 2 at 8:49

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