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Illogical and counter factual behavior in general may be caused by such a large group of things according to psychology that it's impossible to generally assert one cause for it. Indeed I have witnessed spilt milk cause illogical behavior. A large amount of time it is cause by emotions like fear of death or shame in life. Given that most people have not the ...


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Analogical reasoning is fine, if done well. It is normal for people to compare events with their own experiences or with other things that have happened in the past. Hopefully the analogy fits and doesn't lead A problem with contrafactuals too far is that historians tend to freeze all other contingencies and let the history diverge wildly. In reality, ...


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Unfortunately, historians are not very scientific, so the kind of reasoning you envision is more or less absent in historical research. History, as practiced today, is more about collating facts from literary sources, rather than reasoning about those facts. Not that there haven't been plenty of people who have attempted theories of historical reasoning. For ...



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