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One cannot help but notice that the current shelling of Israel by Hamas has started in the month of Ramadan. So did the war of 1973 and a few other troubles. Is this just a coincidence, or is there indeed a correlation between the likelihood of trouble in the Middle East and Ramadan?

  • The War of 1973 was started on an Israeli holiday (The Day of Atonement) to increase the chance of catching them off guard. – Oldcat Jul 22 '14 at 21:28
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    but it also happened to be ramadan. (That's why it is sometimes called the Ramadan war, not to be confused with the Ramadan offensive in which Egypt invaded North Yemen in 1963) – Clint Eastwood Jul 23 '14 at 1:06
  • I'm confused by your use of the term "correlation"? Are you asking for a statistical analysis of the probability of three attacks occurring during the same holiday? Is the pattern statistically significant? or are you asking for historical analysis of something? – Mark C. Wallace Jul 31 '14 at 10:45
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    @MarkC.Wallace: there were a lot more than 3 wars or uprisings in Middle East. Should be enough data to figure out whether the probability of a trouble in Middle East is more than 1/12 to start in the month of Ramadan than other months. – Michael Jul 31 '14 at 14:51
  • @Michael I'm unaware of statistical analysis that focused on the months of Ramadan but there are clear statistics showing that war/rebellion/trouble is much more likely during summer, and is at least partly blamed on heat making everyone a bit more tense (although the main reason is that war is difficult in winter, but this is assuming the war was planned and not spontaneous). I can easily imagine that hunger ( + heat ) can put everybody in a bad mood looking for trouble. – Juicy Aug 31 '14 at 3:17
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The “sacred” or “prohibited” months during which fighting is banned are Rajab, Muharram, Dhul-Qaʻdah, and Dhul- Hijjah. The fasting month (Ramadan) is not one of these. So, if the shariʻa is actually strictly implemented there will be (purely statistically) a one in eight chance that any war will take place in Ramadan.

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there is no correlation from religious view , and there is nothing in Islamic jurisprudence will courage people to do wars on Ramadan time , but actually most of big Victories in Islamic history have take place in Ramadan like bader and ain jalout and malaz kurd battles , and for that reason Muslims will feel optimistic about wars in Ramadan

  • in fact fighting is proscribed during Ramadan... But as always that's taken rather loosely to just mean fighting with other muslims, infidels are fair game... – jwenting Jul 31 '14 at 10:48
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    That's what I suspect: the increase of religious fever in Ramadan + empty stomach due to fasting + more than usual talk about victories over infidel - does it lead to more violence outbreaks? If we would list all the violent troubles started in the Middle East, would the ones that started on Ramadan be more than 1/12th of them? – Michael Jul 31 '14 at 14:55

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