At the simplest level, yes, a larger shot will have better penetration than smaller shot for the same muzzle velocity or for a given powder charge. The amount of damage/casualties actually caused will vary depending on where the shot strikes, if it rebounds around the cabin or penetrates the opposite side, and how much splintering takes place.
The table below gives a comparison of the penetration (of solid elm) achievable by guns of various calibres and charge weights.
42 pounder (10 ft barrel):
Charge |
Velocity (ft/s) |
Penetration (ins) |
21 lbs |
1600 |
49.5 |
14 lbs |
1300 |
32.5 |
10 lbs 8 oz |
1130 |
24.5 |
7 lbs |
925 |
16.5 |
3 lbs 8 oz |
650 |
8.5 |
32 pounder (10 ft barrel):
Charge |
Velocity (ft/s) |
Penetration (ins) |
16 lbs |
1600 |
45.0 |
10 lbs 14 oz |
1300 |
29.66 |
8 lbs |
1130 |
22.5 |
5 lbs 4 oz |
925 |
15.0 |
2 lbs 10 oz |
650 |
7.33 |
9 pounder (8.5 ft barrel):
Charge |
Velocity (ft/s) |
Penetration (ins) |
4 lbs 8 oz |
1600 |
29.5 |
3 lbs |
1300 |
19.5 |
2 lbs 4 oz |
1130 |
14.66 |
1 lbs 8 oz |
925 |
9.83 |
12 oz |
650 |
4.75 |
6 pounder (7.5 ft barrel):
Charge |
Velocity (ft/s) |
Penetration (ins) |
3 lbs |
1600 |
25.8 |
2 lbs |
1300 |
17 |
1 lbs 8 oz |
1130 |
13 |
For comparison, the table below gives a sample of the thickness of wood in various ship classes. Obviously, the penetration will depend on the angle that the shot strikes the target. As the angle increases from the perpendicular, the greater the apparent thickness of the wood becomes.
Rating |
Location |
Thickness (ins) |
1st Rate |
Load line |
28.0 |
|
Upper deck |
21.0 |
2nd Rate |
Load line |
26.25 |
|
Upper deck |
20.0 |
3rd Rate |
Load line |
24.0 |
|
Upper deck |
18.25 |
Frigate |
Load line |
20.0 |
|
Upper deck |
14.5 |
Corvette |
Load line |
17.5 |
|
Upper deck |
14.0 |
Given the space, this is a very simple overview and a detailed analysis would take a chapter or two (or possibly a book of its own).
Source: The Naval Gunner, Lt. T. S. Beauchant (Devonport, 1828), pg 133-134
Once the shot has entered the ship, what happens will vary depending on where the shot hit. Unfortunately, there seems to have been little contemporary experimental data (quite possibly because of the difficulty of realistically modelling the environment and recording the effects) to work from. So what we know is almost entirely from anecdotal reports. [The modern recreations all seem to work with comparatively small calibre cannon firing into fairly small, thin hull sections which don't really simulate the effects of a strike on an enclosed gun deck]
A strike at the waterline will possibly allow water to enter the ship. Patching the hole would then become a priority because a sinking ship loses the ability to fight (as men are taken to man the pumps) and manoeuvre effectively. A strike at just the right point at the waterline might just enter the magazine and if it hits something capable of creating a spark - boom (although great care was usually taken to ensure that there was nothing that could spark in there).
A hit into the deck space will have the possibility of killing men directly, dismounting cannon from their carriages and damaging the masts and rigging (one way of dismasting a ship). If the attacking ship could put itself across the bow or stern of the target, then shot could potentially travel the entire length of the gun deck killing anyone in the way, with an increased chance of dismounting one or more guns.
Indirectly, wood 'splinters' (that could actually be several feet long) would shower anyone in their vicinity, maiming or killing those they struck (and infection would then kill many of the injured). The exact nature of the splintering would depend on both the size of the shot and the type of wood used in the hull. Counter-intuitively, lower velocity shot from carronades was said to create more splinters (which earned them the nickname "smashers") than the long guns.
If the shot hit a gunpowder cask or killed someone handling one, then gunpowder could be spread across the deck where any source of ignition could result in a rapidly spreading fire (obviously care was taken to avoid this but in a crowded, dark, rolling gun deck accidents can happen). Like flooding, once a fire starts it becomes a priority to put out because of the risk to the structure of the ship and the possibility that the fire might reach the magazines with immediately fatal consequences. In fact, there are accounts from Trafalgar of the crews of enemy ships helping fight fires because of the risk of the fire spreading to their own ship or causing an explosion that could sink both ships.