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Finally, Trevisanato’s theory relies on the plague of the late 14th century being an epidemic of tularemia, so that it can be transmitted between humans and sheep (if it was some other disease, not transmissible between these species, then Askhella’s and Uhha-muwas’s rams can’t have been intended to transmit it). But what is the evidence for this diagnosis? The reference is to Trevisanato (2007), ‘The biblical plague of the Philistines now has a name, tularemia’, Medical Hypotheses 69, pages 1144–1146. I have not looked at this in detail, but attempts to diagnose diseases from brief and fragmentary descriptions in the historical record do not have a wholly successful track record.

Finally, Trevisanato’s theory of biological warfare depends on the plague of the late 14th century being an epidemic of tularemia, so that it is transmissible between humans and sheep. However, the main evidence presented for this claim is that “the description in Neshite records [2], e.g., knees, debilitation, and sensation of internal burning, is also coherent with tularemia”. I was unable to find this passage in reference [2], but I believe that the intended reference is to the Ten-Year Annals of Mursili. This is the translation given by Bryce:

My Lord, the mighty Storm God, revealed to me his divine power. He unleashed a thunderbolt and my army saw the thunderbolt and the Land of Arzawa saw it. The thunderbolt proceeded and struck the Land of Arzawa and struck Apasa, the city of Uhhaziti, and brought Uhhaziti to his knees, and he fell ill.

_{Trevor Bryce (1998). The Kingdom of the Hittites, page 210. Oxford: Clarendon Press.}

The translation here seems to be difficult: Jaan Puhvel (1983, page 479) says that “the correct rendering ought to be ‘it (i.e., the storm-god’s thunderbolt) lodged in Uhhazitis’ knees, and he fell ill’”. In my opinion, it is laughable to imagine that there are any prospects of accurately diagnosing Uhhaziti’s illness based on this passage. And even if one could, there would still be no evidence that Uhhaziti’s illness was the same as the plague.

Additionally, although Uhha-muwas does ask the god to turn toward the Hatti land as claimed, he requests that the attention be favourable. This is inconsistent with Trevisanato’s interpretation, which is that this text is associated with the Arzawan side of the Hittite–Arzawan war, in which case one would expect the requested attention to be unfavourable.

When evening comes, whoever the army commanders are, each of them prepares a ram—whether it is a white ram or a black ram does not matter at all. Then I† twine a cord of white wool, red wool, and green wool, and the officer twists it together, and I bring a necklace, a ring, and a chalcedony stone and I hang them on the ram’s neck and horns, and at night they tie them in front of the tents and say: “Whatever deity is prowling about (?), whatever deity has caused this pestilence, now I have tied up these rams for you, be appeased!” And in the morning I drive them out to the plain, and with each ram they take I jug of beer, I loaf, and I cup of milk(?). Then in front of the king’s tent he makes a finely dressed woman sit and puts with her a jar of beer and 3 loaves. Then the officers lay their hands on the rams and say: “Whatever deity has caused this pestilence, now see! These rams are standing here and they are very fat in liver, heart, and loins. Let human flesh be hateful to him, let him be appeased by these rams.” And the officers point at the rams and the king points at the decorated woman, and the rams and the woman carry the loaves and the beer through the army and they chase them out to the plain. And they go running on to the enemy’s frontier without coming to any place of ours, and the people say: “Look! Whatever illness there was among men, oxen, sheep, horses, mules, and donkeys in this camp, these rams and this woman have carried it away from the camp. And the country that finds them shall take over this evil pestilence.”

_{O. R. Gurney (1977). Some Aspects of Hittite Religion, page 49. Oxford University Press.}

_{† The writer is “Askhella, a man of Hapalla”. Hapalla was an Arzawan kingdom in central Anatolia, a vassal state of the Hittite Empire.}

When evening comes, whoever the army commanders are, each of them prepares a ram—whether it is a white ram or a black ram does not matter at all. Then I† twine a cord of white wool, red wool, and green wool, and the officer twists it together, and I bring a necklace, a ring, and a chalcedony stone and I hang them on the ram’s neck and horns, and at night they tie them in front of the tents and say: “Whatever deity is prowling about (?), whatever deity has caused this pestilence, now I have tied up these rams for you, be appeased!” And in the morning I drive them out to the plain, and with each ram they take 1 jug of beer, 1 loaf, and 1 cup of milk(?). Then in front of the king’s tent he makes a finely dressed woman sit and puts with her a jar of beer and 3 loaves. Then the officers lay their hands on the rams and say: “Whatever deity has caused this pestilence, now see! These rams are standing here and they are very fat in liver, heart, and loins. Let human flesh be hateful to him, let him be appeased by these rams.” And the officers point at the rams and the king points at the decorated woman, and the rams and the woman carry the loaves and the beer through the army and they chase them out to the plain. And they go running on to the enemy’s frontier without coming to any place of ours, and the people say: “Look! Whatever illness there was among men, oxen, sheep, horses, mules, and donkeys in this camp, these rams and this woman have carried it away from the camp. And the country that finds them shall take over this evil pestilence.”

_{O. R. Gurney (1977). Some Aspects of Hittite Religion, page 49. Oxford University Press.}

_{† The writer is “Askhella, a man of Hapalla”. Hapalla was an Arzawan kingdom in central Anatolia, a vassal state of the Hittite Empire.}