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Partial answer (which I thought of some time after asking the question): the case of the Trojan Horse. According to the story, near the end of the Trojan War, the Greeks lifted the siege leaving a wooden horse behind. The wooden horse was actually a ruse, since it contained Greek soldiers within. The Trojans were debating what to do with the horse, with ...


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Katrina had a huge electoral impact. It wasn't the death so much as it was the evacuation. For a while in the immediate wake of the storm the city was simply not safe to live in. However, a significant amount of its population had no access to personal transport, so they had to be bussed out to nearby metropoli large enough to absorb them, most notably ...


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It seems that one basic assumption in the question is stable voting behaviour of affected people. That is likely a quite difficult to test hypothesis. Like in the old paradoxon that if the dumbest person moves from country A to B he might indeed raise the average intelligence of both countries? If people are killed by a catastrophe those all cannot vote ...


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